USDA’s first survey-based forecasts for the season slightly lowered yields for corn and soybeans compared to projections last month.

In the August Crop Production report released Friday, USDA puts corn production for 2023/24 at 15.1 billion bushels, down 209 million from the July projection, but ten percent more than 2022 which would be the second highest on record behind 2016/17. The corn yield forecast, at 175.1 bushels per acre, is 2.4 bushels lower than July’s forecast. The report indicates that among the major producing States, yields are forecast above a year ago in Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio, and South Dakota. Yields in Illinois, Minnesota, and Missouri are forecast below a year ago.

The USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for August, also released on Friday, cuts total U.S. corn use for 2023/24 by 95 million bushels to 14.4 billion with feed and residual use lowered 25 million bushels while corn use for ethanol remained the same at 5.3 billion.

Soybean production for 2023/24 is forecast at 4.2 billion bushels, down 95 million from July on lower yields and down
2 percent from 2022. Harvested area is forecast at 82.7 million acres, unchanged from July. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 50.9 bushels per acre is reduced 1.1 bushels from last month. If realized, the forecasted yields in Arkansas, Indiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Ohio, and South Carolina will be record highs.

Wheat production is forecast at 1.73 billion bushels, up 5% from 2022. Growers are expected to produce 1.23 billion bushels of winter wheat this year, up 2% from the previous forecast and up 11% from last year. Durum wheat production is forecast at 57.4 million bushels, down 10% from 2022. All other spring wheat production is forecast at 450 million bushels, down 7% from last year. Based on Aug. 1 conditions, the U.S. all wheat yield is forecast at 45.8 bushels per acre, down less than one bushel from 2022.

Today’s report also included the first NASS production forecast of the season for U.S. cotton. NASS forecasts all cotton production at 14.0 million 480-pound bales, down 3% from last year. Yield is expected to average 779 pounds per harvested acre, down 171 pounds from 2022.