Corn and soybean production took another step down this month compared to September 2022, according to USDA’s latest Crop Production report.

Based on conditions as of Oct. 1, corn yields are now expected to average 171.9 bushels per harvested acre, down 0.6 bushel from the previous forecast and down 4.8 bushels from 2021. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 80.8 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast. Corn production is down 8% from last year, forecast at 13.9 billion bushels.

Also based on conditions as of Oct. 1, soybean yields are expected to average 49.8 bushels per acre, down 0.7 bushel from the previous forecast and down 1.9 bushels from 2021. Area harvested for beans is forecast at 86.6 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast but up slightly from 2021. Soybean production is expected to be 3% lower than 2021, forecast at 4.31 billion bushels.

The report also included a production forecast for U.S. cotton. All cotton production is forecast at 13.8 million 480-pound bales, down slightly from the previous forecast and down 21% from 2021. Based on conditions as of Oct. 1, yields are expected to average 842 pounds per harvested acre, down 1 pound from the previous forecast but up 23 pounds from 2021.

USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for this month’s 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for reduced supplies, greater feed and residual use, lower exports and corn used for ethanol, and smaller ending stocks.

Corn supplies are forecast at 15.322 billion bushels, a decline of 172 million bushels from last month, as lower production and beginning stocks are partially offset by higher imports. Exports are lowered 125 million bushels reflecting smaller supplies and slow early-season demand. Projected feed and residual use is raised 50 million bushels based on indicated disappearance during 2021/22. Corn used for ethanol is lowered 50 million bushels. With supply falling more than use, corn ending stocks for 2022/23 are cut 47 million bushels.

Lower soybean production is partly offset by higher beginning stocks, supplies are reduced 31 million bushels. Soybean exports are reduced 40 million bushels to 2.05 billion with increased competition from South America.