The record yields and production predicted for the U.S. corn crop this year have good potential to get even bigger, according to livestock economist Steve Meyer, Paragon Economics.
“It just looks very good … we’re looking at a great crop,” said Meyer at the Boehringer Ingelheim Vetmedica North Carolina Swine Health Seminar last week. “Based on history, the two years we’re comparing to right now are 1994 and 2004, and in those cases, the final yield got 10-12 bushels larger than the August estimate. So my guess is this crop’s going to get bigger before we put it in the bin.”
USDA is estimating 167.4 bushels per acre for corn right now, but Meyer thinks 180 is within reach, and that’s good news for livestock producers looking at near record feed availability and lower prices. “We’re not going back to $2 corn and $180 bean meal but we’re at the lowest levels on costs in five years,” he said. “We’re in a lot better place from a cost standpoint, we’re in a lot better place from a demand standpoint.”
Meyer says demand right now is being driven by consumer interest in high protein diets. “Demand has been excellent for both beef and pork,” he said. “Less concern about fat and cholesterol, a lot more concern about carbohydrates. Some fundamental changes in consumer tastes and preferences that we think has got legs and is going to be here for a while.”
Interview with Steve Meyer, Paragon Economics