On August 6, the Genscape LandViewer team released its corn supply predictions to clients, estimating the corn supply to around least 12.6 billion bushels. Other crop advisory groups as well as USDA is predicting the corn crop to be closer to 14 billion bushels, a number that Genscape believes is too high. The USDA is releasing its latest crop report on Monday, August 12, 2013 at noon EST.

“For the supply to meet the high predictions from groups like the USDA, contributions from historically highly productive county-clusters would be necessary, and that doesn’t seem likely,” said Dr. Steffen Mueller, senior director of Genscape’s LandViewer group.

According to Genscape, traditionally highly productive county-clusters, such as many counties in northern Iowa and southern Minnesota, show severe problems this year. In addition to modeling analysis, the LandViewer team has conducted multiple ground verification trips and has surmised that these problem areas will not likely recover to the level necessary to help the country meet the USDA’s total supply estimate. In addition, the national corn crop is an average of three weeks behind, and it will have much higher risk for frost exposure.

LandViewer’s prediction is based on a high resolution geospatial data model combined with extensive ground truthing. Using satellite technology, LandViewer has developed a spatial-based algorithm to predict corn supply on a parcel-by-parcel basis. Corn yield and supply predictions for each of the monitored 1,100 counties were shared with clients on August 6, a week in advance of the USDA reports. The information is useful for grain buyers to master local supply shortages or surpluses. For national grain investors, the LandViewer parcel-by-parcel platform has also proven to be a useful tool to identify risk associated with isolated county clusters.