The November crop forecast from USDA calls for a slightly lower corn crop but a slightly higher soybean crop.
Corn production is now forecast at 14.4 billion bushels, just a bit lower than last month, but still three percent higher than last year, with yields now expected to average 173.4 bushels per acre. If realized, this will still be the highest yield and production on record for the United States. Soybean production is forecast at a record 3.96 billion bushels, up less than one percent from October and up 18 percent from last year.
The main reason for the slight drop in the corn forecast is a slow harvest and weather challenges, that are now including heavy snow in the upper Midwest. The latest crop progress report shows Wisconsin, Michigan, Colorado and Indiana lagging behind the most in harvest, but significant progress was made in the last week so that the corn harvest nationwide now stands at the five year average of 80 percent.
In the new World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate, USDA slightly increased corn use with corn used in ethanol production now projected 25 million bushels higher. USDA estimates total supply at 15.7 billion bushels, with estimated use at 13.7, leaving ending stocks of 2.0 billion bushels.
“As farmers are working to find storage for record crops and dealing in some areas with transportation issues, we’re delighted to see a slight increase in demand and reduction in forecast ending stocks,” said National Corn Growers Association president Chip Bowling of Maryland. “Along with this, we’re seeing prices bump up slightly.” Average farm price, reported as a range, was increased a dime to $3.20-$3.80 per bushel.
“This is positive news for the market overall as we’re expecting demand to rise to meet these record yields,” said American Farm Bureau Deputy Chief Economist John Anderson. “An estimated increase in ethanol production should also help to absorb this year’s bumper crop.”
The drop in the national production estimate for corn seems to be coming from traditionally high-yield states that are now seeing lower estimates this month, Anderson said. The Iowa yield estimate was shaved by two bushels per acre, and Minnesota’s came down by five.