The drought is certainly taking its toll on row crops, as the latest USDA crop report out this morning shows that the corn harvest this year will be down 13 percent from last year’s numbers, with soybeans expected to be 12 percent lower than 2011. Meanwhile, cotton will see a 13 percent increase while winter wheat should be up 1 percent from the July forecast numbers.
Corn production is forecast at 10.8 billion bushels, down 13 percent from 2011 and the lowest production since 2006. Based on conditions as of August 1, yields are expected to average 123.4 bushels per acre, down 23.8 bushels from 2011. If realized, this will be the lowest average yield since 1995. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 87.4 million acres, down 2 percent from the June forecast but up 4 percent from 2011.
Soybean production is forecast at 2.69 billion bushels, down 12 percent from last year. Based on August 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 36.1 bushels per acre, down 5.4 bushels from last year. If realized, the average yield will be the lowest since 2003. Area for harvest is forecast at 74.6 million acres, down 1 percent from June but up 1 percent from 2011.
All cotton production is forecast at 17.7 million 480-pound bales, up 13 percent from last year. Yield is expected to average 784 pounds per harvested acre, down 6 pounds from last year. Upland cotton production is forecast at 17.0 million 480-pound bales, up 15 percent from 2011. Pima cotton production, forecast at 663,000 bales, is down 22 percent from last year. Producers expect to harvest 10.8 million acres of all cotton, up 14 percent from 2011. This harvested total includes 10.6 million acres of Upland cotton and 233,400 acres of Pima cotton.
All wheat production, at 2.27 billion bushels, is up 2 percent from the July forecast and up 13 percent from 2011. Based on August 1 conditions, the United States yield is forecast at 46.5 bushels per acre, up 0.9 bushel from last month and up 2.8 bushels from last year.
Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.68 billion bushels, up 1 percent from July and up 13 percent from 2011. Based on August 1 conditions, the United States yield is forecast at a record high 48.0 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushel from last month and 1.8 bushels higher than last year. The area expected to be harvested for grain or seed totals 35.0 million acres, unchanged from last month but up 8 percent from last year.