The international audience at the U.S. Soy Global Trade Exchange went home with a head full of key insights for soybeans and the “World Economic Outlook – Now through 2017” was a small part. Tim Quinlan, Director, Senior Economist, Wells Fargo Securities, Global Division, keynoted the closing plenary and provided an analysis on the macro U.S. and major foreign economies.
He sat down with me before he took the stage to share how he hopes his words will impact the international soybean market. “What I am here to do is provide some context around the global economy, the U.S. economy specifically and where the federal reserve will guide interest rates over the next few years.”
Tim said we are in year seven of an economic expansion and they typically only last about five years. Are we living on borrowed time? “I think the biggest thing globally is we have much slower growth in China. The world economy has to get used to that…How do we cope in a world where global GDP growth is in the 2.7-2.9 percent change when we are used to 3.5-4 percent. It’s the new normal folks have to come to terms with.”
The top twenty trading partners with the U.S. are Tim’s bread and butter, but when it comes it emerging markets he said China has slowed, Brazil is having hard economic times and Russia is in a recession. So, who does he believe to be the next emercing market? “If I had a $100 and had to pick a horse over the next ten years, I’d bet on India to have the fastest growth rate.”
Listen to my complete interview with Tim to learn more: Interview with Tim Quinlan, Wells Fargo Securities
View and download photos from the event here: 2016 US Soy Global Trade Exchange Photos