The Beltwide Cotton Economic Outlook Conference this year was a sobering one for the industry.

“Cotton prices have been stagnant since planting…we’ve traded in more or less a six cent range over the last six months,” said Beau Stephenson, Omnicotton, Inc. in his presentation on the Changing Global Cotton Market. “This is not an exciting price pattern for the producers who’ve been waiting for anything that looks like profitability.”

Stephenson discussed the impact of non-U.S. growth in cotton production, particularly Brazil and Australia, that the U.S. lost the China market again, and that while India has increased imports, they are not coming from the U.S.

The Changing Global Cotton Market: Implications for U.S. Price Discovery – Beau Stephenson, Omnicotton, Inc.
Beau Stephenson, Omnicotton, Inc. - presentation 20:55

Darren Hudson, Texas Tech University, followed up on Stephenson’s presentation with his report on the impact of tariffs on U.S. cotton exports.

Overall, Hudson said so far the tariffs have had minimal impact on U.S. apparel imports, and while the U.S. cotton share of the global cotton market has slipped, the issue is large declines in the overall cotton share globally. “This is about global demand,” said Hudson. “Everything else will sort itself out if you increase global demand.”

Hudson says just a one percent increase in mill use would have significant impact on price improvement, acreage, and exports. “That one percent increase in mill use is a ten cent differential,” he said.

The Impact of Tariffs on US Cotton Exports and Apparel Imports – Darren Hudson, Texas Tech University
Darren Hudson, Texas Tech University - presentation 20:09