The Avian Flu crisis is a big wild card in the pricing of all meats says Jim Long, Pork Commentator. Much of the major mediums are giving it lots of attention. Time Magazine, USA Today, etc, are intensely discussing the challenges of Avian Flu.
In marketing theory at least, the perception is repetition of a message creates an impression and retention. The media, the chicken and health sectors keep repeating the chicken and Avian Flu message many times. “People dying and the fear of a pandemic are not a message you want to put out there to create demand,” says Long, Vice President Genesus Genetics. In parts of Europe and Asia, reports suggest chicken consumption has dropped 20 percent. French government officials are resorting to eating chicken on television to promote its safety. Eating chicken in France is a patriotic gesture.
The USA Today reported recently on how the chicken companies have lost up to 30 percent in the stock market. “I’m saying Avian Flu is a huge wildcard effecting not only chicken but pork price prospects,” says Long. “It appears Avian Flu moves rapidly. It has traveled several thousand miles from South East Asia to Europe. The bad news is, birds fly. There are ten’s of thousands of chicken barns in the U.S.”
What will happen if it breaks in the U.S? Will chicken consumption hold, or fall 5%, 10%, 20%. Americans have shown little concern about BSE, but the government clearly laid out the dangers the chance of infection was minimal: Consumers believed, beef consumption held. In retrospect it is likely a bad time to promote the Other White Meat. Blah or is it Duh. Building a brand with emphasis on a competing product does have some drawback.”